Bristlemouth: A Value Investing Blog
March 26, 2009

ANZ’s Asian Adventure

ANZ’s Asian Adventure

CEO Mike Smith and the board of ANZ have been completely upfront, even brazen perhaps, with their plans to diversify out of Australia. If you choose to join them, you’ve no excuses when ANZ comes home with its tail between its legs.

Yesterday’s ‘market sensitive’ announcement from ANZ contained nothing of substance. It stated that Mike Smith has been to China and is now in Hong Kong. And that ANZ has a three-point plan to ‘accelerate its progress in becoming a leading foreign bank in China’. So what?

Is this the most important thing ANZ has to tell the market in the middle of a global recession?

The answer to that question is obviously no. The company has more than enough challenges dealing with the fallout from its involvement in the Opes Prime fiasco, troubled loans to Babcock & Brown, Centro and ABC Learning, and a wider deterioration in the Australian economy.

But it’s clear Smith and chairman Charles Goode have their hearts set on Asian domination and, come what may, they are going to throw shareholders’ capital and management time at it. Royal Bank of Scotland’s Asian assets are up for sale and it's long odds-on ANZ will be the top bidder. Perhaps RBS’s distressed state will enable ANZ to pick up a bargain. But it’s far more likely ANZ will join the likes of AMP, Foster's, NAB, IAG and a plethora of Australian property trusts as patsies to overseas sellers.

There are, of course, plenty of Australian businesses with successful overseas operations (Computershare, Brambles, QBE etcetera). But I don’t know of one success story that began with a board plan for global domination. All of the successes have built their business through organic growth or opportunistic acquisitions. All of the pie-in-the-sky strategic plans – ANZ’s ‘aspiration’ is to become a ‘leading foreign bank in China by 2012’ – have ended in disaster.

ANZ is a big player in one of the most profitable banking sectors in the world (as measured by return on equity) and the current financial crisis is an opportunity to consolidate that position. Half of the Australian competition has been bought – BankWest by Commonwealth and St George by Westpac – or disappeared (most non-bank lenders). Margins for those that are left are through the roof. Sure, growth options are limited. But what’s wrong with generating mountains of cash and returning it all to shareholders?

There’s no point whinging after ANZ loses billions of dollars in Asia. You’ve been given plenty of warning about its Asian growth plans and if, like me, you don’t want to be a part of it, it's time to sell your shares.

Comments

PeterPhan
March 26, 2009

Agree wholeheartedly. Remember how much money Telstra lost in HK's PCCW (which recently was embroiled in scandal as Mr Richard Li attempted to privatise the company on the cheap)? The likes of Computershare, CSL, Cochlear, Leighton etc are successful in their expansions because they all have a clear competitive edge. Pray tell, what exactly is ANZ's competitive edge to enable it to become a leading foreign bank in China? What the heck is in the 3 points plan anyway? And note the careful wording of "leading foreign bank". What does that mean? What market share? What revenue? What profits? There is no clear performance yardstick. Besides local competitors (which totally gutted Fosters), we are talking about major foreign banks from all over the world, most of which have already established a beachhead. This foray will likely end in tears.

Justin
March 26, 2009

Oooh harsh guys. To be fair to Smith, all of the ABC Learning, Opes Prime and BNB rubbish was all set in process long before he took over at ANZ.

Clearly also the Board hired him predominately for his Asian expertise, which makes sense if they want to be big in Asia. Telstra is a different story too - a company with too little imagination and too much cash that got burnt at the peak of the market. At least ANZ will be a buyer at the bottom of the cycle and not the top!

Yes it could just sit happily in Australia, battling the other 3 banks for miniscule percentages of market share, or it can have a bit more vision than that.

Banking may be a fairly commoditised business, but walk into any ANZ branch in Vietnam or South East Asia and the difference between it and their local opposition is pretty stark.

JG
March 27, 2009

As one of the few bank share-owning analysts at The Intelligent Investor (including ANZ), I unfortunately have to agree with Steve. While ANZ may just fluke a cheap acquisition in Asia, its 25 March announcement about its 'China growth plans' didn't fill me with any confidence whatsoever. The talk about focusing on 'high growth' regions is worrying and it's not even the first time ANZ has expanded into Asia before running back home again.
Charles Goode reminds me a bit of Perpetual's former chairman Charles Curran, who got the idea into his head that Perpetual needed to diversify, and then hired a chief executive to fit his view. And look how that turned out.
My only consolation is that any problems will probably take years to emerge and, the market being what it is, it may get quite excited about the pride well before it worries about the fall. This might mean time is on ANZ shareholders' side, but don't get caught up in all the excitement - the odds of the Asian growth strategy not working out are very high.

March 30, 2009

Mike Smith did come from HSBC and so has plenty of experience in Asia.

That said though, expanding into Asia will be done on the terms of the sellers of the asian assets. Having a strategy on the quiet and taking advantages of opportunities as they spring up is quite different to walking around carrying a big sign saying "Here is my strategy, I'm a sucker with lots of money, kick me".

Every other Australian "strategy" like this has failed in Asia. Companies in Asia can succeed with a strong local partener. Without that you are almost certainly doomed.

I don't have any ANZ shares and now won't touch em with a barge pole. Time for silly strategies to go, time for Charles Goode to go as well. His time as king-maker is over, he's now more of a warning sign than a positive advertisement.

Rama
March 31, 2009

I will support if Smith follows incremental approach.Verify strategy is working consolidate and then go for next acquisition rather than do it one big bang approach.ANZ has lots of previous expereience in Asia with Grindlays bank etc . Whether those experience and lessons learnt are still in the bank or not i a not sure. Of all the 4 banks they have the biggest data centre in Bangalore and may be they can go some leveraging of this data centre to process data for Asia /Pacific and hence bring econoies of scale. I am still hopeful thet things could turn out better this time.

Robert Pearson
April 2, 2009

I seem to remember lots of 'overseas' expansion by the 'Big Four' banks. So far I seem to remember lots of failures-but not a single continuing success. Similarly AMP, and many others have had significant failures. Sims, Austal (yet to see), Brambles, BHP of course, are successes. I wonder what the 'total capital written off' compared to the total gain would be. Of course this should be corrected for the overseas capital implied by takeovers for shares.

Sam
April 5, 2009

Steve, you've implied anz will fail but haven't laid out any reasons as to why, other than because some others did and they have other issues they should focus on — I don't consider either of these as reasonable reasons (they might have some good female executives who can do more than one task at a time....).
I'm not saying they'll succeed, but at least they're not out snapping up acquisitions at the top of the market. Caution is fine, but negativity without analysis is not.

Peter
April 6, 2009

Sam,
Negativity is par for the course amongst analysts, journos and brokers. Bulls at the top of the market and negative bears at the bottom. That's ok though. It provides massive opportunities. This market slaughter has taught me a few lessons on human nature. It is very predictable and humans generally have a pack mentality when it comes to investing.

Gareth
April 6, 2009

I don't think it's quite fair to call Steve's comments negativity without analysis, there's years of experience behind our hesitation. We've watched a great many corporate expansions from the sidelines - Tabcorp, BlueScope Steel, Sydney Aquarium, Alinta, OneSteel, Alesco etc. All had acquisitive managers that scared us at the time, and we don't regret missing any of them. There are 1500 listed stocks and we're trying to put together a portfolio of 10 or 20 or 30 of the best ideas. In such a situation, it's wise to practice a guilty until proven innocent approach. If we're wrong on ANZ, we'll miss out. But we're pretty confident we'll be proven right in the fullness of time (over many years).
By the way, if ANZ do happen to buy assets at sensible prices, it'll likely be the result of dumb luck than brilliance. This Asian expansion has been on the cards since well before the market cracked. This management/board is well placed to mistake that luck for brilliance, and push it too far on the next deal.

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