One Very Lucky Fund Manager
One Very Lucky Fund Manager
That’s me I’m talking about. The lucky fund manager. And it’s not because we’re having luck on the markets. We’re well-placed for a much lower Aussie dollar. We don’t own any consumer discretionary stocks (yet). We’re prepared for China to hit the skids* and don’t own any resources stocks.
Given many of these issues have come to the fore recently, one would expect substantial outperformance, yet we’re only a few percent better than the market. On the investing side, we haven’t yet had much go our way.
So why am I the lucky fund manager? Well, we had net inflows into the Value Fund in September. It wasn’t a huge amount of money but it was net in, when most fund managers are dealing with substantial net flows out.
It’s a clear sign that our investors are genuinely long-term, genuinely contrarian and genuinely prepared to let me do my job. This mightn’t seem like a big deal to you but ask any fund manager and they’ll tell you it’s something they dream of at night. It allows us to be patient, invest in illiquid stocks and focus on the business, not the stock price.
I’ll take some credit for this. I have explained our approach clearly and encouraged some people not to invest because their expectations aren’t right, but I still count my blessings every day.
If the returns don’t improve over the next three years, I’ll sack myself and wind it up. But there will be no cause for complaint; our investors are giving me every chance.
*China won't hit the skids because of a global recession, but more on that later in the week
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Comments
Steve
As a long term contrarian investor I am very pleased to read that you are feeling supported by your investor base. Net inflows at this time give you fire power, use it wisely. Now all you need to do is switch off the noise from outside and focus on the job.
Considering the difficult times in general and in my opnion likely tough times ahead for quite some time I think your comment re sacking yourself in three years is a little drastic and should be a longer time period. I personally think if we are few percentage ahead over the next few years and positioned well then that is still a good outcome. 5 years is a long time for most investors and I know you discussed with investors a 5 year horizon but in general and certainly in light of current times we all should have more like a 10 to 20 year horizon. So for me good luck over the next 10 to 20 years.
To be honest I wouldn't mind if the returns don't improve even after five years, because at the end of the day I can sleep well knowing Steve is working hard and is as contrarian and value focussed as they come and that my money is in good hands.
PS: Hope you are still around in 3 years time because I had planned on dollar cost averaging into the fund over the next 50 years!
Thanks Joseph, but with all of my own money in the fund I won't be too happy with that outcome!
Good to hear Steve. Don't cut yourself off too soon!
We should finally see the end of this structural bear market (that started in 2000) sometime in the next 3-5 years. During which we'll see some very appealing valuations. From there we can all just go to the beach for the next 15-20 years.
Then again, Steve, you've been able to connect and engage with your investors in much of the ways that the best fund managers have practised. So not surprised by what's happening to the fund.
Hi Steve
I was interested to read your thoughts re:IFF, and the supporting comments. I am not an investor in IFF,because I manage my own SMSF, with huge acknowledgement to TII (and your) guidance and philosophy over the past 10 years. However, were I to seek a fund to take over my investments, (and who knows what the future may bring), I would unreservedly choose you and yours.
I sleep very well these nights, and view the present opportunities with a perspective that I know would not have been possible, had I not chanced upon TII all those years ago.
I echo the urgings of others for you not to apply the self-imposed short-term performance yardstick that you felt was required. You and TII have nurtured the patient mindset.
I'm sitting here having breakfast in a very nice hotel in Shanghai.
I'm looking out the window at all the impressive architecture of their new " Wall Street "
Yesterday I went to the Shanghai Urban Planning Centre. I looked at the details of their 2006 to 2020 urbanisation plan which is on public display. They have done so much already and its another 9 years to go on this plan alone.
My tour guide tells me their are dozens of inland cities who havent even started yet.
"China hitting the skids ??"
I would say there is a long way to go in the China story yet.
Of course there will be ups and downs but history will probably tell us they were blips in this long story.
Cheers,
Damend
Thanks Damend, interesting comments from the epicentre. The level of construction is, in my opinion, the problem - not a sign of the strength.
We could go and build mega cities, airports and fast rail networks in India, but if no one can afford to use what we build, there are going to be problems eventually. Everything you see around you is being constructed with debt and that infrastructure needs to earn a return high enough to repay the debt, which is clearly not happening. This can go on for a few years yet but by 2020 I think you'll be witnessing a very different Chinese economy, one much less dependent on Australia's resources.
Hi Steve and team.
Your comments of being a "lucky fund manager", to me reflects the investors are patient and mature. They know the markets have been in termoil and are awaiting the calm to return. I think you have done a great job for keeping the fund in the shape it is. After all not much has to go right for us all to do well.
We all have confidence in you and the team.
Regards to you, Kate and the team.
Owen.
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