Bristlemouth: A Value Investing Blog
October 7, 2008

Reserve Bank Cuts Interest Rates

Reserve Bank Cuts Interest Rates

Today’s 100 basis point (1 percentage point) cut in the official interest rate is the economic equivalent of a severe jolt from a defibrillator. And the result has been a dramatic convulsion throughout Australian financial markets.

Today’s 100 basis point (1 percentage point) cut in the official interest rate is the economic equivalent of a severe jolt from a defibrillator. And the result has been a dramatic convulsion throughout Australian financial markets.

The stockmarket roared its approval, with the All Ords rallying more than 200 points from its daily low of 4,395. Markers in the short-term money markets also surged, including 90-day bank bills (where the yield fell 60 basis points) and three-year government bonds (where the yield fell more than 25 basis points). For those unfamiliar with money markets, a fall in yield equates to a rise in price.

Meanwhile, in another corner of the financial markets, the reaction was more subdued. The price of 10-year government bonds actually fell, before rising a little. These long-dated bonds are more sensitive to inflation expectations, and they greeted the RBA’s move warily.

And you can see why. Australia’s money supply (M3) has been growing at a jaw-dropping rate for more than 12 months now. The latest data, for August, showed a 19% year-on-year increase. This kind of wanton money-printing is likely to lead to higher inflation down the track and lowering the price of money so dramatically is not likely to help. In trying to alleviate the immediate and pressing problem of the global credit crisis, there’s every chance the RBA is setting the Australian economy up for even bigger challenges in future.

Comments

Dave
October 7, 2008

Great insights Steve. The disastrous contagion of global asset deflation and over-leverage continues to spread far anf wide ...

At least our RBA still sees fit to publish their M3 data, unlike our good friends at the US Fed. Apparently seeing how Hank and Ben's printing presses have been spinning off at the wheels over the last 1-2 years is a privelage no longer afforded to mere citizen taxpayers.

(Or, rather, in US Fed-speak, "[the] M3 does not appear to convey any additional information about economic activity that is not already embodied in M2 and has not played a role in the monetary policy process for many years." What a load of baloney!)

I suspect we are in the early stages of a global asset deflation that will spread ("coupled") across all geographies and asset classes, including the vastly over-valued Australian property sector that has been pumped up by the hot air of loose credit and tax distortion for many years.

Hold on to your hats boys (and girls!), it's about to get a whole lot worse! Looks like the disciplined calls of the II crew will be proven right in the long run. Of course this was expected. Even Grantham was saying "everything is a bubble", way back in 2006.

Dave
October 7, 2008

Apologies -- Greg behind that piece it seems, not Steve. Well done Greg.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.

Post new comment

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.
By submitting this form, you accept the Mollom privacy policy.
Syndicate content
Legals